The Sars-CoV-2 spreads and the myths on numbers are a disaster, a dangerous misinformation and misreading. Neither it’s fatality rate is as high as suggested, nor the headcount of cases is accurate. Media should not be screaming out the allegedly high death toll or the cases of infected, those numbers are as solid as card house for almost all countries. As a recent study from the Reuters Institute shows ‘most people in most countries are using either social media, search engines, video sites, and messaging applications (or combinations of these) to get news and information about coronavirus.’ Classic media have to reduce this behaviour by a solid, clear and not alarming campaign.
Advanced and ‘rich’ countries like Germany weren’t able to perform wider testings (see graph below).
This in mind one question arises: How are the figures in other countries to be interpreted? How serious are the Johns-Hopkins stats? How serious can a country like Spain with limited capacities step on the break and relax the lockdown? What about America? Neither the US, nor Mexico are capable of similar testing as Switzerland, Austria or Germany. In Colombia the system is rotten from within, the few tests even arrive late to the labs and therefore are useless, so no numbers given form there are accurate.
If you work with limitations, but seriously, like Germany does, you can start predicting about the behaviour of the curve as soon as May 2020. And only after studies to predict and understand how much a population is infected, only at that point you can seriously consider a relaxation of restrictions in small steps. The harm is done and it will get worse.
Puzzled about re-infection, re-activation, or recurrence of PCR-positivity after revovery from #COVID19? Look how PCR toggles between positive and negative toward the end of courses. Yellow=throat swab; red=sputum; grey=stool. Dotted line=detection limit. https://t.co/DA7nyEkSA9 pic.twitter.com/qFNyWrIu0I
— Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) April 13, 2020
If you care and don’t want your health system – if you have a real one – to collapse, you have toe ease into a slow exit scenario. Accurate stats are a must. Even if you discover the small fatality rate you have to step out slowly. Again, to be trustworthy you have to raise the standards and not fall into a inaccurate headcount as your lead story and narrative. Doing this you lose seriousness, the public rated “platforms less trustworthy than experts, health authorities, and news organisations”, this as a result of going yellow even when you don’t have to, the study finds.
Don’t alarm, inform …